Fantasy Football Busts in 2017

Busts are a part of fantasy football. In August you feel so confident about a player performing well on your team only to curse their lives two months later. It happens to everyone, but you can do your research now to avoid busts like the plague. Now let me say this first, the definition we’re using for a bust in this article relates to players who severely disappoint relative to their cost, not the final stat lines they produce (since it’s possible a player is still useful, but not to the initial expectations).

Fantasy Football Busts in 2017
(Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports)

1. Russell Wilson-QB

Russell Wilson a bust? Yes, especially where he is being drafted in most fantasy football drafts. On average, Wilson is the 5th QB selected with an average ADP of 55 overall. Sure, Wilson brings mobility to the position but he’s coming off his worst rushing season as a pro (259 yards, 1 TD) and nothing Seattle has done this offseason would make you think that will change this season. Wilson is mobile, but he is not actively taking off and running down field, so take Wilson’s rushes out of the mix from now on.

The Seahawks offensive line was rated the worst in football, meaning Wilson will not have any time to throw, constantly throwing on the run or in front of a pass rush–neither of those are conducive to success in fantasy football. Let’s not forget that Wilson is arguably coming off his worst season as a pro passing the ball–only 21 TD’s last season a career-low and 11 INT’s a career-high. The weapons around him have not gotten better—-Doug Baldwin is not a true No.1 WR and Wilson’s play will be bust-worthy based on where he is being drafted. I expect him to finish outside the Top 10 of all QB’s in 2017, making him one of the most overdrafted players this season.

(USA TODAY Sports)

2. Jay Ajayi-RB

Jay Ajayi burst onto the fantasy football scene last season, rushing for 1,272 yards and 8 TD’s. This year, he’s not surprising anyone and is being drafted on average around the 8th RB selected–14th overall. If you are drafting Ajayi as your RB1 you better believe he is going to put up better numbers than he did last season—and I don’t see that happening.

Ryan Tannehill is coming off an injury, and you will see teams stack the box against Ajayi to stop the run. The Dolphins have the 25th ranked offensive line in all of football, severely hurting Ajayi’s value. They traded away Branden Albert to save cap room and are counting on Laremy Tunsil to step in and fill the void (he played guard last season). Even if he steps up, they still have a void to fill at left guard. Not to mention, Jermon Bushrod (the other guard) was awful last year. It’s important to note, because Jay Ajayi wasn’t the same player when their offensive line wasn’t healthy.

I believe Ajayi will come close to that 1,000 yard mark again, but for where he is being drafted I would classify him as a bust in 2017.

3. Alshon Jeffery-WR

In many mock drafts I have been a part of this summer, Jeffery has been drafted as high as the 8th WR selected overall. That is pure insanity. Are we forgetting this is the same receiver that hasn’t had a 1,000 yard season since 2014 and has only started all 16 games once in his career. A change of scenery can certainly help Jeffery and I am a huge fan of Carson Wentz, but that doesn’t automatically mean Jeffery is going to be a Top 10 WR in fantasy football–despite being drafted as one.

Think about this, in the last two seasons he has missed 11 games and played in only 21. In the games he played in, he was questionable for 13 of them. On top of that, owners need to have in the back of their minds the possibility of another suspension that would have him miss 10 games.

For where he will be drafted, Jeffery simply isn’t worth it.

4. Adrian Peterson-RB

At this point in his career, Adrian Peterson is a name only. He offers zero fantasy value–this may shock some, but just because he’s on a different team doesn’t mean we’ll see the AP from four years ago. He is now five years removed from his 2k yard season and 2 of the last 3 years he has only managed to play in 4 games total. In three games last season, when healthy, he average 1.9 yards per carry with zero touchdowns–absolutely terrible numbers.

He will be the backup in New Orleans, which should help keep him fresh, but in a passing-first offense AP will not be one of the Saints go-to targets.

(Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports)

5. Eric Decker-WR

The Titans signed Eric Decker to add depth to their WR corps, but that doesn’t mean he should even be owned in fantasy leagues. Decker is coming off two separate injuries that had some doctors question whether he will ever play football again. Add in that injury concern to the depth that the Titans now have, there is no guarantee Decker will stay on the team the entire season. Corey Davis, Rishard Matthews, Taywan Taylor will all be ahead of Decker on the depth chart when the season starts and Tajae Sharpe, Tre McBride, Harry Douglas will all cut into Decker’s playing time as well.

Until you know for sure Decker is healthy and getting guaranteed playing time, he should not be drafted in your fantasy football league.

 

 

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