What is fantasy football ADP?

ADP represents the Average Draft Position for players in fantasy football drafts. It serves as a useful draft prep tool for understanding how players are valued. In this article I am using FantasyPros consensus ADP rankings which takes the ADP from all major fantasy sites. When looking at these players, I am NOT saying do not draft them on your fantasy team, but you do NOT need to overdraft them, drastically cutting into their value.

Fantasy Football

1. Devonta Freeman (ADP 10th overall)

Highest DP: 3rd overall
Lowest DP: 13th overall

Freeman has posted back-to-back 1,000 yard season with 11 TD’s each year. So why is he being overdrafted? Freeman will likely not make it out of the first round in your draft and in some instances will be a top three to five draft pick—that is insane for a back who will certainly be sharing time with other talented runners on the roster. Tevin Coleman, who dealt with injuries his first two seasons in the league is healthy and ready to fully contribute. Similar to Freeman, Coleman can beat you with his legs and his hands in the receiving game. The Falcons also invested a fifth round draft pick on my favorite RB in the 2017 draft class—Brian Hill. While he won’t get many opportunities unless injuries occur, he is an up-and-coming back who will be fantasy relevant in 1-2 years. The last reason why you shouldn’t spend a first round pick on Freeman is the most important—Kyle Shanahan is gone. Shanahan was the master of the Falcons offense that was nearly unstoppable last year—now with Kyle off to San Francisco, the Falcons have brought in recovering alcoholic Steve Sarkisian to run their offense. I don’t hate the hire, but he will not have the same type of offense Shanahan did last year—heck he’s never been an OC on an NFL team before so we really have no idea what to expect, but it scares me away from Freeman as a 1st rounder.

2. Marshawn Lynch (ADP 18th overall)

Highest DP: 5th overall
Lowest DP: 22nd overall

“Marshawn Lynch took a year off and is going to go Beast Mode because he’s with his hometown team”— I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard that as a reason why Marshawn Lynch is worthy of his ADP status. Yes, he was a 5th overall pick in a draft I did two days ago—but for the most part he is going middle of the second round which for most owners is making him a RB1 on their team. That’s crazy. Lynch is now 31 years old and has taken major abuse on his body, sure the one year off helped, but is that really going to cure it all? No way. Most are forgetting the terrible 2015 season he had—dealing with injuries non-stop and accumulating an ugly 417 rushing yards and a measly 3 TD’s. Those numbers aren’t worthy of a Flex spot let alone a RB1. Lynch can offer value to your team in the 4th-5th round, but do not overdraft him because of his name and what he did 3-4 years ago.

Fantasy Football

3. Doug Baldwin (ADP 29th overall)

Highest DP: 10th overall
Lowest DP: 30th overall

Here are some names being drafted AFTER Doug Baldwin: Demaryius Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry, Julian Edelman, Brandin Cooks, even Amari Cooper. I like Baldwin in fantasy, but not ahead of those names listed and the obvious ones who are gone in the first two rounds. I have gone on record saying I believe Russell Wilson will be a bust this year (in fantasy football only) so his receivers will also take a hit as well. I don’t see Baldwin reproducing his 94-catch campaign from a year ago and his TD’s were cut in half from 2015 to 2016 (14-to-7). He’s not looked at much in the red zone which hurts his fantasy value. Don’t be afraid to draft Doug, but not as a WR1 in any format.

4. Adrian Peterson (ADP 50th overall)

Highest DP: 13th overall
Lowest DP: 62nd overall

I can’t stress this enough—Adrian Peterson will NOT be the same back as he was in years past. When healthy last season, he averaged 1.9 YPC and had zero touchdowns. He is now 32 years old, which is the kiss of death for NFL running backs. “But it’s Adrian Peterson, did you see what he did last time he was injured and came back??” Yea I did, it was over two years ago now and he has been injured again and is even older. The likelihood that AP comes back and is the AP from 2010 is not going to happen. He’s the backup in New Orleans and isn’t guaranteed touches–especially for where he is being drafted. There is zero value in drafting AP 13th overall (which happened in one mock draft I did). He is completely off of my draft board, but I can understand where you want to target him later in your drafts, just not as a Top 50 player.

5. Mike Gillislee (ADP 63rd overall)

Highest DP: 30th overall
Lowest DP: 85th overall

The Patriots “stole” Gilislee from the Bills by offering the restricted free agent a contract Buffalo refused to match. To some, that shows interest enough from the Pats to make him a solid fantasy option. Think again. Have you ever owned a Patriots running back before? Do you know how much of a week-to-week headache that is? Belichick can eat a turkey sandwich one day and feel the need to start his 4th string running back against the Pats opponent that week. Gilislee is a solid player, but not one that can be counted on as a RB2 or a consistent Flex play—and that is exactly where he is being drafted. The Patriots have more running backs than they do coaches: Dion Lewis, James White, Rex Burkhead, Brandon Bolden, DJ Foster…the list goes on. Drafting Gilislee as high as his ADP indicates would be a mistake solely because you do not know how much playing time he will earn—and if he looks at Bill the wrong way he could be cut.

Fantasy Football Busts in 2017

6. Russell Wilson (ADP 70th overall)

Highest DP: 28th overall 
Lowest DP: 80th overall

I went into a lot of detail why I believe Russell Wilson will be a bust in 2017, so I’ll give you the short version here. The Seahawks offensive line was rated the worst in football, severely hurting Wilson’s value when he is running for his life and isn’t given an adequate time to throw. The Seahawks weapons are not what they used to be–Baldwin, Graham and whichever back is playing that day do not scare me if I am an opposing defense. I’m not saying Wilson will be terrible this year, but for being the 5th-8th QB drafted, he’s not worth it. Some QB’s being drafted AFTER Wilson: Cam Newton, Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford. I would take all of those guys over Wilson and in some cases I can wait 5-6 rounds later to select them—making the depth on my team even better.

 

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