Fantasy Points Per Route Run: Running Backs
The guys over at Pro Football Focus do a great job with providing the research and analytics in many categories focused around the NFL and Fantasy Football–their readers digest it in many forms. Personally, I digest it by analyzing their analytics and breaking down what I see through my background in sports.
One series PFF came out with was ‘Fantasy Points Per Route Run‘ which is a great tool to see who scores the most fantasy points each time the player would run a route. Check out the full series of articles for all of the data, but I am going to focus on the running back position.
PPR leagues are the only type of leagues I play anymore–why you ask? Well, standard leagues are for the birds and men who use pocket protectors for their writing utensils (not that there’s anything wrong with that).
The running back position landscape completely changes in a PPR format, increasing the value of certain players and decreasing it in others. Here is the list of the best running backs in 2017 based on Fantasy Points Per Route Run or FP/RR.
|Duke Johnson Jr.||0.47|
|Todd Gurley II||0.46|
What does this list tell you? Here are my five takeaways….
- Rex Burkhead is not only a really good receiving back, but he was one of the first options Tom Brady looked at when he was on the field last season. Burkhead right now has an ADP of 95th overall–compare that to rookie Sony Michel who is around 50th overall, nearly five rounds before Burkhead. In a PPR format, that’s insane.
- Alvin Kamara is a stud, specifically in PPR formats where he can justifiably taken as a Top 5 running back. Oh and Mark Ingram is suspended for the first four games…
- Tarik Cohen is the main receiving back in Chicago, but with the other weapons acquired in the offseason (Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, Anthony Miller), how will his role translate in Nagy’s offense? I’m not too concerned…his route running ability is elite and defensive backs struggle matching up with Cohen.Right now, Cohen’s ADP is 119th overall–add in the Chicago Bears have the easiest strength of schedule for RB’s in 2018. Great value pick.
- Duke Johnson Jr. is the receiving back in Cleveland. Rewarded with a new contract in the offseason, the talk I keep hearing of Nick Chubb, Nick Chubb, Nick Chubb as the back to own in Cleveland is dead wrong. Johnson is the most valuable, specifically in PPR formats, but Carlos Hyde, not Chubb would be second.
- Todd Gurley II was a man among boys last season, but I am skeptical he will repeat the exact same season. I’m not sold on Jared Goff as anything more than a game manager and take away Sean McVay in his ear giving him audibles at the line of scrimmage and he’s the same scared little boy we saw on Hark Knocks. Defenses had a year to watch film and prepare to stop the Rams offense and Gurley will be the focus. He’s talented no doubt, and a sure-fire first round pick, but his ADP of No.1 overall is not a good idea in 2018. He will not be the number one running back in fantasy football. No running back has repeated as back-to-back No.1 since Priest Holmes way back 2002-03.
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