(Getty Images)
(Getty Images)

Harvard University has designed a predictive model for the 2015 NFL season that ranks all 32 teams on their chances of making the playoffs as well as the Super Bowl winner. Kurt Bullard, the designer of the program, posted on the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective (HSAC) webpage Wednesday predicting that the Dolphins will be the best team in the AFC (and Super Bowl winner), followed by the Chiefs and Patriots.

The model works like this, from Bullard’s mouth: “The method that I came up with uses Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value statistic, the site’s best measure of trying to tease out individual talent. Then, using ESPN’s NFL depth charts, I aggregated each team’s per game approximate value of what I considered to be the ‘core’ makeup of an NFL team: QB, RB, 2 WR, TE, Top 2 OL, the Top-4 ‘Front Seven’ defensive players, and the Top-2 players from the secondary.”

Ultimately, this is a flawed program. The model only takes into account seven players on offense and nine players on defense. Well, with 11 players on the field for each team, do the four players on offense and two players on defense not matter? This is football, and luckily it is played on the field not through a computer program.

Here is the list of all 32 NFL teams and their percentage chance of making the playoffs:

(In some cases, a team with a higher ranking has a lower playoff percentage than a team below it because of how the postseason is set up.)

2015 NFL prediction from the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective

(Overall ranking, team, percentage chance of making playoffs)

  1. Seattle Seahawks: 95 percent chance of making the playoffs (Highest chance)

  2. Green Bay Packers 93 percent

  3. Miami Dolphins 77 percent

  4. Kansas City Chiefs: 66 percent

  5. New England Patriots: 62 percent

  6. Denver Broncos: 62 percent

  7. Detroit Lions: 53 percent

  8. New York Jets: 56 percent

  9. Indianapolis Colts: 62 percent

  10. Buffalo Bills: 43 percent

  11. Pittsburgh Steelers: 51 percent

  12. Houston Texans: 54 percent

  13. NY Giants: 42 percent

  14. Cincinnati Bengals: 39 percent

  15. Philadelphia Eagles: 35 percent

  16. Dallas Cowboys: 23 percent

  17. San Diego Chargers: 33 percent

  18. Atlanta Falcons: 51 percent

  19. New Orleans Saints: 42 percent

  20. Arizona Cardinals: 29 percent

  21. Chicago Bears: 25 percent

  22. Washington Redskins: 18 percent

  23. Carolina Panthers: 19 percent

  24. Cleveland Browns: 20 percent

  25. Minnesota Vikings: 12 percent

  26. San Francisco 49ers: 12 percent

  27. St. Louis Rams: 10 percent

  28. Baltimore Ravens: 9 percent

  29. Jacksonville Jaguars: 3 percent

  30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3 percent

  31. Tennessee Titans: 2 percent

  32. Oakland Raiders: 1 percent

What do you think of this Harvard study? Let me know in the comments below….

Dan Schalk covers the NFL for MyFantasySportsTalk, you can follow him on Twitter @FFSportsTalk

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