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(Photo: Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press)

The Raptors and Warriors have split wins so far this series. Can the Toronto Raptors return the favor that bestowed upon them by the Golden State Warriors by bouncing back and taking one off GSW at Oracle Arena?

The top online betting outlet, 5Dimes released their numbers with the Dubs listed as 5.5 point favorites. This is interesting because the public is all over this number, at least 63% of bettors are picking Golden State to win by 6.

Why is this interesting you might ask? Well, it’s simple. The Warriors suck at covering point spreads, especially questionably large ones.

A Brief History Against the Spread

It’s true; the Golden State Warriors are terrible at covering the number. However, it isn’t their fault. Because of their reputation and public favoritism, the sportsbooks automatically give them ridiculously inflated lines that they know the Warriors most likely won’t cover but that the public will blindly jump on with cash in hand.

GSW Spread Results from this Season

  • As a Favorite 42.4%
  • As Home Favorites, 40.4%
  • As Home Team, 39.6%
  • All Games Played 43.9%
  • After a Win, 43.3%
  • In Playoff Games, 47.1%

As you can see, all of the stats that coincide with Wednesday night’s situation are not great for Golden State. Especially when we consider the fact that because the Warriors won Game 2, Durant is likely to sit again. Plus, Splash No. 2 is recovering from a pulled hamstring, and although he may play, is likely to be hobbled a bit. The only valid ATS state above 50% the Dubs own is after 2 days rest where they are 53.8%.

Toronto Raptors Spread Results from this Season

  • As an Underdog, 60%
  • As an Away Underdog, 57.9%
  • Playoff Games 55%
  • All Games, 47.5%
  • After a loss, 46.7%

In the current circumstance, the Raptors have three positive ATS trends going their way. The only other direct situational trend that is bad, is exactly the opposite of the Warriors. When the Raps have 2 to 3 days of rest, they tend to be too well rested and only cover the number 37.5% of the time.

So, even with that bad ATS trend, they perform much better as an underdog and in the playoffs than the Warriors do as favorites and at home.

Home vs. Away

So the Raptors have been playing quite well this season. They have the No. 6 road defense in the league at 108.33 points allowed per game and 112.7 points per game scored … but what about during the playoffs? Well, that road offense is not so pretty on the road. Throughout the playoffs, the Raptors have scored just 101.25 highway points per game. Their defense has been stellar, at 104.25 points per game this post-season. However, that is a losing number considering their road offense is only worth 101.25

The Warriors, on the other hand, have put up 115.75 points per game at home this post-season. Offensively, that’s more than a 14-point offense-to-offense advantage. On defense, they have allowed 110.13 at the Oracle Arena during the playoffs.

So recent form shows at Home vs Road Offense that favors the Warriors by 14+ points and a Road vs. Home Defense that favors the Raptors by a hair under 6 points. This leaves us with an 8-point GSW advantage. However, we are sans Kevin Durante and perhaps plus one sore Klay Thompson. Let, deduct 2.5 points (two for no KD and 1 for a slowed Thompson. That leaves us with a handicapped difference of 4.5.  

It is really tight to the 5.5 line the sportsbooks put out. I think GSW win this game … but just barely. With the Warriors propendency to not cover, it leads me to lean on the Raptors on Wednesday.

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