NFL Fantasy Week 5: Should I trade…
We are one month into the NFL season now so it’s time to start seriously analyzing our fantasy football teams and asking ourselves the hard question…should I trade this player? They obviously are not pleasing you with their performance thus far or you wouldn’t be looking to trade them. However, you also realize they could pop off any week now and become the biggest fantasy stud out there. The hottest commodity on the market. You don’t want to be that guy that trades away the MVP in Week 5 of the season.
Sometimes you need a second opinion. You also need to know who might be out there that others are looking to possibly get rid of. You need to know just where the stock prices currently are. Are they rising, slipping, or have they hit rock bottom? When is too soon to trade, when is too late? If you’re looking to make major moves at this point, your season most likely hangs in the balance.
Four weeks into the NFL season is a good enough sample size to start considering some moves if your in a hole already and your team isn’t shaping up the way you hoped it would have after draft night. You might also experience some standoffs at this point in the season because there is so much unknown, and everyone wants to get fair value back in trade. You also have to be prepared to either give way half your team to make a trade work, or be prepared to drop some guys on your bench to make way for some incoming players via trade.
These are just some basic tips and principles to keep in mind before pulling the trigger. Now let’s get down to business and talk about some of the players that might be on the trade block at this point.
Odell Beckham Jr.
I drafted this guy number one in the My Fantasy Sports Talk fantasy league. To say I have been disappointed with ODB is an understatement. Not that his production has been terrible, but it hasn’t been #1 pick worthy, especially when I could have had ANY OTHER PLAYER. My big issue with ODB right now is his attitude. Either he is going to come out of this on fire, or he will pout and crumble the rest of the year and put up pedestrian numbers. The biggest issue right now is there is even talk of benching him until he gets his mind right. While I don’t see that happening, there is definitely reason to consider putting him on the trading block. Although his stock has fallen as of now, you have to get top tier talent in return if you are considering jumping off the ODB bandwagon.
Let’s keep this disappointing Giants theme going. Again, I drafted Eli in the 9th round of the My Fantasy Sports Talk fantasy league because I expected big things from him and all of his talented receivers this year. Eli doesn’t get hurt, he is Peyton’s brother, and he has two Super Bowl rings. Plus, this might be the greatest set of receivers he has ever had. They also pass a lot and that shouldn’t change this year as what running game they do have has been decimated by injuries.While I am considering trading ODB, something tells me to hang on to Eli. Other than last week against the Vikings, he hasn’t been putting up horrible numbers, but he is also yet to reach 20 fantasy points this season. I’m not sure Eli has a lot of trade value at this point unless you can find someone with ODB, Sterling Shepard, or even Victor Cruz to pair him up with.
Gurley was most likely the first running back selected in your draft, if not the first pick overall. While the Rams have surprised me and are now 3-1, they haven’t been necessarily riding Todd Gurley. He is averaging just 10.3 ppg in our league and has failed to reach 10 points in three of their four games. His top game was 85 yards so far this year and that was on 27 carries.It is way too early to use the b word here (bust), but he is definitely in a sophomore slump. He only has two touchdowns in four games and both of them were against the worst defense in the league. Maybe teams are stacking the box and making Case Keenum beat them, which he is so far. Maybe it will turn around for Gurley. It most likely will. How long are you willing to wait is the question. It could go either way at this point so you are at a crossroads, wait it out, or trade now while stock is still high because someone else thinks it’s only a matter of time. He is consistently way under performing his projections. Maybe you give him one more week against Buffalo and see what happens. He is projected 15.1 against the Bills.
Jeffery was drafted 19th overall in our league. He may have even went higher than that, possibly in the first round in a lot of leagues. While he has not been horrible, he hasn’t scored a touchdown yet this year. Another issue is his production is steadily going down each week. Kevin White is finally getting back to full strength and emerging as a weapon. Zach Miller and Eddie Royal have also been stealing the touchdowns. There is still plenty of time to turn it around for Jeffery but the fact that he is losing targets to the aforementioned guys is concerning. Now that White is in the mix, this is not a bad group of receivers. That makes it hard to have a steady output by any of them, similar to that of Green Bay with Nelson, Cobb, Adams, Richard Rodgers, and Jared Cook. Maybe when Cutler comes back he will favor Jeffery more. I definitely would entertain the idea of trading Jeffery, if you get close to 2nd round value in return.
Lacy was probably drafted in the top three rounds in your draft. He was a top 12 running back going into the year. The Packers have faced a tough Vikings D in one of their three games so far, but Lacy is still under-performing with the carries he is getting. He is yet to get in the endzone. The Packers just aren’t going to devote much time to the running game. You can expect around 12-14 carries each week for a healthy Eddie Lacy. If he doesn’t reach the endzone however, your fantasy production is most likely not going to be there. I think it depends on what you are needing from Eddie Lacy. If he is your RB 1, you’re probably not going to be happy with his production the rest of the year. If you are using him as your flex, or have him around for solid RB depth, you might be OK. If you are depending on him to be your top fantasy producing RB, you might want to think about making a move with a Packers fan.
Dez was no doubt drafted in the first round of your league, if not, second round for sure. He is a top 4 wide receiver in the league. Tony Romo going down may have scared some people away. Dak is coming along, but maybe his development has cost Dez some major fantasy production. If you are still with Dez through thick and thin this year, and waiting on Romo to come back, you have to realize that Romo could easily go down again. While Dallas is doing fine, how long are you prepared to wait it out with Dez. You invested your first round pick in Dez but you aren’t getting first round production so far. Plus you add in his recent knee injury and there is a lot of uncertainty. He has one touchdown in three games this year. I don’t know that you are jumping off the Dez bandwagon right now, but if you have WR depth, you might want to consider trading him for depth in other areas. You should be able to get a good package in return.
I selected Cobb with the 40th pick in our draft. The fourth round is about where Cobb probably fell in most leagues. Maybe as high as the second round if someone was really high on him. His production was going to go one of three ways, way down because of the return of Jordy Nelson, up because defenders were going to key in on Nelson, or just be average. So far it’s been a little below average. His high game is nine fantasy points and he is yet to get in the endzone through three games. I would say it is safe to deal Cobb at this point. Maybe you can get a good return based on name recognition and potential explosive games. At this point he just isn’t someone you need in your lineup every week.
| Brandon Reid covers the NFL and Fantasy Football for MyFantasySportsTalk.com |
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