NFL Week 11 odds, picks and predictions
Looking at the schedule and seeing that Week 11 is here gives me mixed feelings. We are getting close to fantasy league playoffs and overall teams have established their identities and are jockeying for position in their divisions and conferences. But at the same time it’s almost December and for a glass half empty kind of person, football will be over before you know it. So enjoy it and lets look at last week’s results and get on to the match ups this Sunday.
For Picks of the Week, we went 2-1, and 3-0 on the Over/Under. Not too shabby. We lost the Parlay Pick of the Week ( Dallas UNDER, Kansas City UNDER, and Cleveland UNDER) as the Cleveland/ Pittsburgh game went OVER.
Oakland (E) @ Detroit
The Oakland Raiders are coming off a loss to Minnesota in which they were out rushed 263 yards to 84. They will look to get back on track against a Detroit Lions team that despite a nice win over their rival Green Bay, has a lot of issues to deal with. The Lions secondary is shredded and I think Raiders QB Derek Carr can do just that to the Lions defense. I expect to see the Raiders offense to get back rolling.
Raiders 29 Lions 22
Kansas City (-3) @ San Diego
Kansas City is coming off an impressive win against division rival Denver and looks to make it four straight wins after starting the season off 1-5.
San Diego has been decimated by injuries, particularly to their offensive line and wide receiver core. That doesn’t bode well against the Chiefs’ defensive unit, which recorded five sacks against the Broncos last week and has 11 sacks in the last two games. I believe the Chiefs can make it a long day in San Diego for Chargers QB Philip Rivers and the Chiefs offensive should be able to move the ball effectively.
Chiefs 24 Chargers 19
Indianapolis @ Atlanta (-5.5)
My pick here is really simple. Atlanta is coming off a bye week to face a team in the Indianapolis Colts that will be without QB Andrew Luck. The Colts are coming off a bye week to face Matt Ryan, Devonte Freeman, Julio Jones and others. I don’t see this game being that close. The Falcons are averaging over 30 points per game at home. I can’t picture Indy scoring half that but I will guess that a special teams or defensive score adds to their point total.
Falcons 35 Colts 21
Parlay Pick of the Week
Last week we went with the following three game parlay but missed on the Cle/ Pitt game.
Dallas/ Tampa Bay (43.5) UNDER (Winner), Kansas City/ Denver (41.5) UNDER (Winner), Cleveland/ Pittsburgh (41.5) OVER (Loss)
This week we like the following:
New York Jets (-3), Denver/ Chicago (41) OVER, Dallas/ Miami (46.5) UNDER
Here’s the rest of my Week 11 point spread picks. Please make sure you check out Dan’s Week 11 picks to help you with your SU selections.
If I had to guess…
Washington 14 Carolina (-7) 27
Dallas (-1) 23 Miami 20
St. Louis 10 Baltimore (-2.5)* 17
New York Jets (-3) 21 Houston 17
Green Bay 20 Minnesota (-1) 24
Tampa Bay 20 Philadelphia (-5.5)* 27
Denver 21 Chicago (+1) 26
Cincinnati 23 Arizona (-4.5)* 28
San Francisco (+13) 10 Seattle 20
Buffalo (+7) 17 New England 23
*half point can be bought at most betting sites
If I had to Guess Record – Week 9: 6-4 ATS — Over/Under: 6-4
Record overall (season) SU: 83-64
Record overall for Picks of the Week (season) ATS: 15-10
*All point spreads provided by VegasInsider.com and are accurate as of Nov. 21st, 2015. Point spreads may change between the time of this publication and when the game is actually played. Please gamble responsibly. If you need help, please call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Tayrance Allen covers the NFL for MFST, you can follow him on Twitter @Twigganomics
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