Kirby Lee/Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Kirby Lee/Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Week Five rolls in and as we look back over the first quarter of the season, we’ve seen some good football. There are still several undefeated teams and a handful of teams who started off slow, but are still in the hunt within their division. As far as my picks are concerned, it is the latter of the two, but my slow start only means I’m headed towards finding my rhythm and finishing strongly so that’s what I’m sticking with!

The start of Week Five brings about change in that now I will provide my best 1-3 games of the week, along with predictions on every other game for point spread and over/ under purposes. Each week we will tally up the picks and see where we stand. So let’s go!

Seattle @ Cincinnati (-3)

The Cincinnati Bengals come into this game with a chance to go 5-0 for the first time in 27 years. Andy Dalton and this high powered Bengals offense are averaging 30.2 points (4th) and 422 yards per game (2nd). They will face a Seahawks team that ranks third in points given up (17.3) and second in yards allowed (279), something’s got to give.

Conversely the Seahawks rank 27th in passing yards per game (219). The run game is still effective to the tune of seventh (128 yards per game) in the league, but a banged up Marshawn Lynch hasn’t given them much and Fred Jackson will likely not play.

The Bengals are 4-0 against the spread so far this season and 15-4 in their last 20 home games. Though they’ve went over the Over/Under in three of those four games, I’m looking for this to be a hard fought battle upfront in the trenches with touchdowns not so easy to come by. The Over/ Under is 43.5 and I’m taking the UNDER.

Bengals 23   Seattle  19

 

New England (-8.5) @  Dallas

Coach Belichick and his Patriots are 11-4 in their last fifteen games after a bye week. But for bettors, the Patriots are only 1-4-1 in their last six games against the spread after a bye week.

The Patriots are out to prove a point and I don’t think the wounded Cowboys are up to the test. The under hit six out of the last seven times these two teams played and Cowboys quarterback Brandon Weeden has lost his last 10 games as a starter. The Patriots average a league leading 39.7 points per game, but I don’t think they will score that much in this road game, though they will pull out the victory. The Over/ Under is 49.5, I’m going UNDER.

Patriots 31  Cowboys 13

 

If I had to guess…

Jacksonville (+3)  26   Tampa Bay  21

Baltimore  27   Cleveland  23  (+6.5)

Kansas City (-9)  30   Chicago  20

Green Bay 24   St. Louis  16  (+9.5)

Buffalo (-1.5) 29   Tennessee  19

Atlanta (-7.5)  35  Washington  24

Philadelphia (-5) 34   New Orleans  24

Arizona (-2.5) 23  Detroit   19

Denver  24    Oakland (+4.5)  21

New York  20  San Francisco (+7)  16

San Diego (-3)  27  Pittsburgh  17

 

Record overall SU: 37-27

Record ATS: 6-6

*All point spreads provided by VegasInsider.com and are accurate as of Oct. 9th, 2015. Point spreads may change between the time of this publication and when the game is actually played. Please gamble responsibly. If you need help, please call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Tayrance Allen covers the NFL for MFST, you can follow him on Twitter @Twigganomics

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