Why you should stay away from Eddie Lacy in fantasy football this season
Eddie Lacy is quickly rising draft boards in most fantasy leagues. Currently ranked as the 29th best running back with an ADP of 70th overall per FantasyPros.com, Lacy has been drafted within the Top 35 picks in the last two mock drafts I have done. A lot I’m sure is tied into the fact that Lacy has stopped gaining weight, continuing to hit his weight bonuses throughout the offseason, and the general consensus that he will be Seattle’s No.1 running back.
Before you automatically assume the job is Lacy’s, let’s hear from Gregg Bell a Seahawks beat reporter from The News Tribune…
All spring into summer, it’s been Eddie Lacy. Eddie Lacy’s career restart. Eddie Lacy’s weigh-ins and weight bonuses. Eddie Lacy’s doing everything the Seahawks have asked of him, and more. Eddie Lacy’s P90X home-fitness program. Eddie Lacy’s “Beach Body Challenge. A lot of people forget, Lacy did all those things last season and look where it got him.
The last two seasons combined, Lacy has rushed for 1,118 yards with a whopping three touchdowns. Injuries had a lot to do with that, but he has only been able to play in all 16 games once in his career (2014). For the name recognition Lacy brings, his actual stats when healthy do not equate to a RB1 in fantasy football.
Even his best season, which came in 2013 (his rookie season) he failed to rush for 1,200 yards and owned a decent 4.1 yards per carry. Those numbers do not indicate a RB1–where if you select him within the first 30 picks, there is a 50/50 chance you will rely on him every week.
In Green Bay when Lacy was healthy, he was the No.1 back and did not share the load often, averaging nearly 20 carries per game. In Seattle, that will not be the case.
Thomas Rawls, is competing with Lacy for that No.1 RB title and both are currently listed as the starter on the Seahawks depth chart.
More from Gregg Bell…
Carroll rarely gives his lead-back candidates much work in the four exhibition games. Plus, he has a history when he’s had them of using two, pounding backs almost interchangeably and riding the hot hand and legs as games progress, such as with Reggie Bush and LenDale White a dozen years ago at USC.
I could see a scenario in which Rawls gets carries early in games, Prosise gets the third-down and hurry-up work, then Lacy gets the bulk of his carries ramming into tiring defenders in the second half on Sundays, as something of a closer. That is how Carroll could dictate games with his will as he did in Seattle’s Super Bowl seasons of 2013 and ‘14, punishing and controlling opponents with defense and a smash-mouth running game. That plan works far better when the Seahawks have the lead in games, of course.
Bell mentioned CJ Prosise who I am very high on this season. He will be on the field a lot, mainly in passing situations, but he will be the ‘Hawks main receiving weapon out of the backfield. That hurts Lacy’s and Rawls’ value in PPR leagues—making both rely on rushing yards and rushing TD’s as their only means for fantasy production. The fact that they will be splitting time, is another detriment to their fantasy value.
One final reason why you should stay away from Lacy as a high-end fantasy running back….the Seahawks absolutely terrible offensive line. Ranked dead last by Pro Football Focus, the Seahawks line fails to open holes consistently for their running backs and has Russell Wilson scrambling for his life when he drops back to pass.
While there is a chance of a career resurgence for Lacy, the fact that he is 27 years old coming off serious ankle surgery and has not been productive for the last three years—I will lean towards leaving Lacy off of my draft board altogether. That being said, if you do want to draft Lacy—like our Lead Writer Brandon Reid, do yourself a favor and wait until the middle rounds to do so. Drafting him as your RB1 or even RB2 will give you and your fantasy team headaches, so much so you may put on the pounds stress eating—kinda like Eddie Lacy a few years back.